AVIATION'S NEW ERA
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Figure 3. Proposed aircraft with significant increases in efficiency.
Chapter 3. Flaws of Our Ways in Aviation
Aviation is a young field, with a history spanning a century with continual improvements in technologies. Leaders of the aerospace industry agree that major advances in flight efficiency are still attainable. Four highly-efficient designs have emerged:
All of these designs capitalize on a more horizontal angle of attack (i.e. 0°-2° air angle of attack). All but the Hybrid Wing Body have thinner wings with lower projected frontal profiles of the wings. Cargo fuel efficiency is important for the future of aircraft development. Currently, the standard aircraft has a load ratio of approximately 1:3; 1 part payload to 3 parts fuel/airframe. The triwing jumbo jet’s design translated to up to 5:3 load ratio; this is an 70-80% reduction in fuel use on a payload basis.
The most important information extrapolated from these designs is that four different “optimal” designs have emerged. An axiom of optimization science is that a true “optimum” design is arrived at from all base case designs in the proximity of that optimum. In other words, all these designs are likely localized optimizations, far from what is possible. In analogy, if Earths topology were the optimization surface; the designers of these aircraft are climbing in the Ozark foothills when the highest surfaces are shalf way around the world at Mount Everest.
The science indicates that the Mount Everest of aircraft design is an aircraft configured to operate as a flat plate airfoil with a low aspect ratio (low leading-edge width) such as a towed platform led by a delta wing (see Figure 6). The science identifies that L/D of 50:1 to 100:1 (i.e. 3X to 6X) are attainable, depending on the bulge of the payload. For a 3.3X increase in L/D, 1 part payload becomes 5 to 10 parts payload, which is an 80% to 90% reduction in fuel consumption. Corrections to this include use of lighter construction materials, more efficient engines, and the need for more airframe weight (which will reduce payload).
And then, there is the energy source to consider, transition to use of solar cells covering the large flat surface area may partially or fully replace fuel use. Solar power is more than twice as productive when above the clouds with higher levels of solar radiation than on the surface—this translates to energy at costs substantially lower than alternatives.
It is important to note that current airliner transit is already on par with the most efficient of all transit on an energy per passenger mile basis (see Table 1). Air transit is also the fastest alternative for all but the shortest routes; providing high-capacity travel and transport with minimal infrastructure cost over long distances. Improved efficiencies will only expand the gap between air transit and ground transit.
It is a snowball effect of benefits that is unprecedented in history.
HAPS/HAPS and Eta Glider Comparison – The Eta glider claims a L/D of 70:1, which is about 3.5X the L/D of the optimal contemporary airfoil, the glider contains a fuselage and cockpit. This is an important benchmark that identifies how a functional aircraft can approach the performance of a high-performance airfoil. This benchmark analogy identifies that an aircraft configured as a flat plate airfoil can approach L/D of 50 to 100, the latter for high altitude electronics payloads requiring no visible fuselage.
HAPS is short for high altitude pseudo satellite. HAPS aircraft are designed for 24/7 flight using solar power with possible applications in communication. Advocates identify that one HAPS aircraft can replace 1800 cell phone towers. Several aviation aircraft manufacturers have HAPS aircraft in prototype; all use the light-weight high wingspan design similar to Eta. This design has two flaws: 1) designs are fragile as evident from the multiple crashes of protypes that break apart in flight and 2) the designs are limited to low speeds. The Figure 6 towed platform aircraft presented in chapter 5 overcomes these two limitations with higher L/D potential.
The towed platform aircraft is narrow in wingspan and flexible along the length, creating a robust design. Also, at higher velocities, the air causes the towed platforms to fly at lower air angles of attack; this results in decreased drag coefficients with increasing velocity which improves operating efficiency at high speeds.
A New Era in Aviation – For over a century, development of the towed platform design has eluded the aircraft industries. This is a result of multiple issues converging with the result of the airline industry being stuck in a century-old comfortable paradigm. These issues include:
As a result, there is a huge upside potential in aircraft design and transit capabilities. The stage is set for a disruption on a scale rarely experienced by mankind. The technology impact applies to many fields, beyond simply transit, including major impacting applications in: 1) communications (e.g. HAPS/HALE approaches to telecom and internet), 2) military defense including airborne aircraft carriers and 24/7 drones that can transverse the globe, 3) harvesting of solar energy for a range of applications including transferred power and hydrogen production, 4) local drone mail order and delivery such as Amazon as well as fast food, and 5) numerous airborne industries enabled by low-cost solar power.
Transit and communications represent markets of over $10 trillion a year. The others total another $10 trillion a year.
Aviation is a young field, with a history spanning a century with continual improvements in technologies. Leaders of the aerospace industry agree that major advances in flight efficiency are still attainable. Four highly-efficient designs have emerged:
- Hybrid Wing Body – 30%-40% increase in passenger-mile economy, ~1.2X L/D.
- Double Bubble - 30%-40% increase in passenger-mile economy, ~1.2X L/D.
- Multi-Wing – 70% reduction in fuel à up to a 230% increase in efficiency, ~2X L/D.
- Light-Weight, High Wingspan – 70:1 L/D or 5X L/D.
All of these designs capitalize on a more horizontal angle of attack (i.e. 0°-2° air angle of attack). All but the Hybrid Wing Body have thinner wings with lower projected frontal profiles of the wings. Cargo fuel efficiency is important for the future of aircraft development. Currently, the standard aircraft has a load ratio of approximately 1:3; 1 part payload to 3 parts fuel/airframe. The triwing jumbo jet’s design translated to up to 5:3 load ratio; this is an 70-80% reduction in fuel use on a payload basis.
The most important information extrapolated from these designs is that four different “optimal” designs have emerged. An axiom of optimization science is that a true “optimum” design is arrived at from all base case designs in the proximity of that optimum. In other words, all these designs are likely localized optimizations, far from what is possible. In analogy, if Earths topology were the optimization surface; the designers of these aircraft are climbing in the Ozark foothills when the highest surfaces are shalf way around the world at Mount Everest.
The science indicates that the Mount Everest of aircraft design is an aircraft configured to operate as a flat plate airfoil with a low aspect ratio (low leading-edge width) such as a towed platform led by a delta wing (see Figure 6). The science identifies that L/D of 50:1 to 100:1 (i.e. 3X to 6X) are attainable, depending on the bulge of the payload. For a 3.3X increase in L/D, 1 part payload becomes 5 to 10 parts payload, which is an 80% to 90% reduction in fuel consumption. Corrections to this include use of lighter construction materials, more efficient engines, and the need for more airframe weight (which will reduce payload).
And then, there is the energy source to consider, transition to use of solar cells covering the large flat surface area may partially or fully replace fuel use. Solar power is more than twice as productive when above the clouds with higher levels of solar radiation than on the surface—this translates to energy at costs substantially lower than alternatives.
It is important to note that current airliner transit is already on par with the most efficient of all transit on an energy per passenger mile basis (see Table 1). Air transit is also the fastest alternative for all but the shortest routes; providing high-capacity travel and transport with minimal infrastructure cost over long distances. Improved efficiencies will only expand the gap between air transit and ground transit.
It is a snowball effect of benefits that is unprecedented in history.
HAPS/HAPS and Eta Glider Comparison – The Eta glider claims a L/D of 70:1, which is about 3.5X the L/D of the optimal contemporary airfoil, the glider contains a fuselage and cockpit. This is an important benchmark that identifies how a functional aircraft can approach the performance of a high-performance airfoil. This benchmark analogy identifies that an aircraft configured as a flat plate airfoil can approach L/D of 50 to 100, the latter for high altitude electronics payloads requiring no visible fuselage.
HAPS is short for high altitude pseudo satellite. HAPS aircraft are designed for 24/7 flight using solar power with possible applications in communication. Advocates identify that one HAPS aircraft can replace 1800 cell phone towers. Several aviation aircraft manufacturers have HAPS aircraft in prototype; all use the light-weight high wingspan design similar to Eta. This design has two flaws: 1) designs are fragile as evident from the multiple crashes of protypes that break apart in flight and 2) the designs are limited to low speeds. The Figure 6 towed platform aircraft presented in chapter 5 overcomes these two limitations with higher L/D potential.
The towed platform aircraft is narrow in wingspan and flexible along the length, creating a robust design. Also, at higher velocities, the air causes the towed platforms to fly at lower air angles of attack; this results in decreased drag coefficients with increasing velocity which improves operating efficiency at high speeds.
A New Era in Aviation – For over a century, development of the towed platform design has eluded the aircraft industries. This is a result of multiple issues converging with the result of the airline industry being stuck in a century-old comfortable paradigm. These issues include:
- A base case design that is too far from the true optimum for incremental improvements to reach it, that base case design being a wing attached to a cylindrical fuselage.
- A base case design leading to the application of inaccurate or inappropriate heuristics such as: a) higher velocities above a wing cause lift and b) the higher wingspans led to higher efficiency.
- A fourth issue which is the subject of Chapter 7.
As a result, there is a huge upside potential in aircraft design and transit capabilities. The stage is set for a disruption on a scale rarely experienced by mankind. The technology impact applies to many fields, beyond simply transit, including major impacting applications in: 1) communications (e.g. HAPS/HALE approaches to telecom and internet), 2) military defense including airborne aircraft carriers and 24/7 drones that can transverse the globe, 3) harvesting of solar energy for a range of applications including transferred power and hydrogen production, 4) local drone mail order and delivery such as Amazon as well as fast food, and 5) numerous airborne industries enabled by low-cost solar power.
Transit and communications represent markets of over $10 trillion a year. The others total another $10 trillion a year.